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The Matchup
The absence of key players for Chelsea has been well documented, with Raul Meireles, Ramires, John Terry and Branislav Ivanovic all suspended, and injury concerns over David Luiz and Gary Cahill.
There is some good news for Chelsea, at least historically, which is that English teams have met German teams in the final five times before, winning four.
In 1975, Bayern Munich beat Leeds United 2-0 in Paris, but since then, English teams have had the upper hand. In 1977, Liverpool defeated Borussia Moenchengladbach 3-1 in Rome. In 1980, Nottingham Forest won their second European Cup defeating Hamburg 1-0 in Madrid, and in 1982, Aston Villa beat Bayern Munich 1-0 in Rotterdam.
The most recent meeting between representatives of the two countries was in 1999, when Manchester United famously came from behind to defeat Bayern Munich 2-1 at the Nou Camp in Barcelona.
Bayern Munich have suspension problems of their own, with David Alaba, Holger Badstuber and Luiz Gustavo all missing out, and more good news is that Bayern Munich come into the final fresh from a 2-5 loss in the German Cup Final last weekend in Berlin, a win that gave Borussia Dortmund their first domestic double.
On the other hand, without a trophy in almost two years, Bayern’s notorious pride has been seriously dented of late, and that could spell trouble for Chelsea.
One final ray of sunshine for Chelsea is that Bayern Munich has been beaten at home by an English team in European competition on one previous occasion. Norwich City won 2-1 at the Olympic Stadium in 1993 in a UEFA Cup match.
The Odds
Bayern Munich are currently 1.48 to win the trophy, and 1.84 to win it in 90 minutes. Chelsea can be backed at 3.05 and 4.7 respectively. Historically, 4.7 seems very tight. As I wrote earlier, in 10 finals with a similar profile, only one was won by the ‘away’ team in 90 minutes – Barcelona last year.
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