President Goodluck Jonathan casting his vote earlier today
An independent national poll carried out around the country by the Nigeria Polls and Survey group has shown that President Goodluck Jonathan would defeat the All Progressive Congress (APC) presidential candidate, General Muhammadu Buhari (rtd) with a 7.01 per cent margin in Saturday’s presidential poll.
This is even as two other indigenous survey firms, FORWARD MAGAZINEand Zevland Ventures Limited tipped the president who is the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate to win the election with at least a margin of 17 per cent.
In its own survey, the Nigeria Polls and Survey group said it hinged its result on a five- item questionnaire administered on a total of 10,294 registered voters picked from the 36 states of the federation and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) of which 6,592 were males and 3,702 were females.
In a statement signed by its coordinator, Dr. Ayo Alao, the group said its questions were framed in a way that the questionnaire sought to draw information on what participants knew about political parties in the country.
Alao said the questionnaire inquired whether participants possessed permanent voters’ card (PVCs) and whether they were aware of the election date as well as whether they were willing to vote on Saturday and who the respondents’ preferred presidential candidate would be in the 2015 presidential election.
He noted that a total of 5508 respondents indicated their readiness to vote for the PDP presidential candidate, Jonathan compared to a total 4786 respondents who favoured APC’s Buhari.
The statement made available to LEADERSHIP further noted: “The data analysis shows that the Peoples Democratic Party’s candidate, Dr. Goodluck Jonathan, may likely have a better showing in the next Saturday’s presidential election in south-south, south-east, and the Federal Capital Territory, while General Mohammed Buhari of the All Progressive Congress may poll more votes in north-west and north-east .
“South-west and north-central remain largely the battle ground that may swing victory either way.
“A new dimension to the social class dynamics is the fact that enthusiasts for the restructuring of the Nigerian State in this category may find exciting, the steps just taken by President Jonathan to ensure the implementation of the recommendation of the National Conference. This would be a plus for the president’s candidacy.”
Alao added that primary primordial factors like ethnic affiliations, religion and social class were also indicated in the analysis as factors that may influence the election.
President Jonathan was set to defeat General Buhari of the APC with at least a margin of 17 per cent come Saturday.
This, they said, was contrary to earlier projections that APC would capture, wholesale, the votes of the south-west geo-political zone.
FORWARD MAGAZINE said the reality on ground today, as revealed by an independent survey, was that Jonathan had unlocked the pathway to even out votes in that region.
It noted that based on 24,000 samples across 33 states and the FCT, the outcome of the research exercise was based on three critical factors, including respondents’ views on the achievements or performance of the president from 2011 to date and to see how this could affect his chances in the coming election.
Other factors used by the firm included the correlation between the outcome of the 2011 presidential election and the likely outcome of the 2015 presidential election as well as detailed study of the various dynamics that have taken place since 2011 and the likely impact on the outcome of the 2015 presidential election.
A statement by FORWARD MAGAZINE noted: “When asked which of the two main political parties they preferred, 65 percent of the respondents opted for PDP, while 31 per cent favoured the APC, one per cent went for other parties, while the remaining two per cent went for none of the parties.
It said the respondents were asked how they would rate Jonathan’s performance in ten critical areas namely security, agriculture, power, education, transportation, aviation, press freedom, fight against corruption, human rights, job creation and women empowerment.
According to the firm, the respondent scored Jonathan as follows: “Security: 15 per cent , 39 per cent , 46 per cent.
Agriculture: 65 per cent, 5 per cent, 30 per cent. Power: 15 per cent , 35 per cent, 50 per cent. Education: 39 per cent, 8 per cent, 53 per cent, Transportation: 25 per cent,
14.5 per cent, 60.5 per cent. Aviation: 39 per cent, 12.4 per cent, 48.6 per cent. Press Freedom: 64.7 per cent, 1.3 per cent, 44 per cent. Fight against Corruption: 3.4 per cent, 31 per cent, 65.6 per cent. Human Rights: 61 per cent, 3.5 per cent, 35.5 per cent. Job Creation: 16 per cent, 24 per cent, 60 per cent. Women Empowerment: 54 per cent, 73 per cent and 38.7 per cent.”
My COMPUTATIONS For Nigeria's March 28, 2015 Elections
I have my computations below for a free, fair, creditable and verifiable
election. I may revise it Friday day before elections.
2015 Elections
SW = 70% of registered voters x 70% Voters Turnout = 50% x 9M = 4.5M
NW = 80% of registered voters x 80% Voters Turnout = 64% x 16M =10.2
NE = 80% of registered voters x 80% Voters Turnout = 65% x 8 M = 5.2M
NC = 80% of registered voters x 80% Voters Turnout
= 65% x 7.5M = 5M
(NC voters may be split 50:50 between PDP and APC)
SS = 90% of registered voters x 90% Voters Turnout
= 80% x 8M = 6.4M
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